The invention relates to a method for predicting the impact between a vehicle and a detected moving pedestrian, generating N particles representing trajectory pairs of the vehicle and of the pedestrian according to a Monte Carlo method, and then evaluating the outcome of each particle so that the space of the states of each particle is split into areas of varying significance depending on its present cinematic state and so that in the case of a predicted non-impact, it calculates the relationship between the significance of the particle at the present instant and its significance at the preceding instant in order to decide, in the case of a particle whose significance increases, to reduce it to an integer greater than 1, of particles each affected by a new weight and, in the case of a particle whose significance decreases, randomly eliminating it according to said significance relationship, its probability to endure being equal to the relationship of significance, the estimation of the probability of said predicted impact being obtained by statistics on the outcome of N particles.